Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Refreshment, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Lost in Thought. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Novice Healer, Art of War.
Banned
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Powercell | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |